Impact of 2025 Monsoon on Key Kharif Crops: What to Expect and How to Plan Ahead

– By Irfan Ahmad, Product Lead, RMSI Cropalytics

Impact of 2025 Monsoon on Key Kharif Crops: What to Expect and How to Plan Ahead

As the first monsoon showers sweep across India, they carry both hope and uncertainty for the Kharif cropping season. The summer monsoon is the lifeblood of Kharif crops, yet its vagaries can make or break the harvest. This year, early forecasts are optimistic – the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects an above-normal monsoon in 2025, around 105% of the long-term average pib.gov.in. Neutral El Niño conditions, La Niña-like atmospheric patterns, and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal a favorable rainfall outlook. However, experience reminds us that a “normal” monsoon on paper can hide extreme swings on the ground.

In this article, we connect the monsoon outlook with the major Kharif crops. Highlighting how data-driven insights can help farmers and agri-businesses plan for the season.

Monsoon 2025: Outlook and Uncertainties

IMD’s long-range forecast predicts above-normal rainfall across most of India from June to September 2025, pib.gov.in. There is a 59% probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 104% of the long-term average, pib.gov.in. Such plentiful rain would typically bode well for crop sowing and growth. Though the distribution of this rain will matter, IMD indicates that while central India is likely to receive abundant showers, some areas of Northwest India, Northeast India, and the southern peninsula may see below-normal rainfall. In other words, Kharif 2025 could be a tale of two India’s – with surplus rain in many regions but pockets of drought stress in others.

History shows that intra-seasonal variability can have a dramatic impact on farming. Just last year, India’s monsoon started slowly (June 2024 had an 11% rainfall deficit). Then rebounded with a 15% surplus in August, ending the season slightly above average, according to indiaspend.com. The year before, Kharif 2023 saw the driest August in over a century, with a 36% rainfall deficit after an early surplus in July, rmsicropalytics.com. These erratic patterns left many crops first parched, then flooded. Even in 2024’s “normal” monsoon, regional disparities were stark – for example, Bihar and Punjab each received around 28–29% below-normal rainfall, indiaspend.com, imperiling their paddy and cotton fields.

On the flip side, typically arid districts in Rajasthan and Gujarat saw rain totals 50-100% above normal, according to indiaspend.com, causing localized flooding. This “feast or famine” characteristic of recent monsoons underscores the importance of planning for extremes. Farmers must be ready for dry spells, sudden downpours, and everything in between.

Crop Wise Outlook: Opportunities and Risks 

Paddy: Floods in the East, Thirst in the Northwest

An ample monsoon usually boosts transplantation in rain-fed states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh. Low-lying belts along the Kosi, Ghaghara, and Brahmaputra (Assam, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh) are primed for flash floods if surpluses arrive in two-day cloudbursts  

• Conversely, a rain deficit in Punjab and Haryana could strain tubewell irrigation and groundwater tables. 
• Pest specters lurk on both fronts: brown planthopper and yellow stem borer outbreaks often follow humid breaks in the rain 
• Early planting of shorter-duration or flood-tolerant varieties, combined with vigilant pest scouting, will be vital. 

Cotton: Good Growth, Bigger Bollworm Headaches 

Central India’s cotton heartland, including Vidarbha, Marathwada, Khandesh, and Telangana, stands to gain from steady, well-spaced showers. The challenge will be the pink bollworm, now resistant to Bt toxins, and whitefly flare-ups if the Northwest experiences a hot and dry season. Farmers should deploy pheromone traps at the square formation stage and retain non-Bt-refugia to slow the development of resistance. An early warning of bollworm risk enables agri-input firms to position insecticides and bio-control in places like the Mansa district of Punjab, a historic epicenter of bollworm damage. 

Soybean: High-Yield Promise Shadowed by Waterlogging Risk 

Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra account for 80% of India’s soybean area and can reap a bumper harvest if the June–July rains establish the crop on time. The danger arises when August downpours waterlog shallow roots, causing pod shatter and rust infections. Choosing well-drained plots, creating surface trenches, and staggering sowing dates can offset the threat. Integrated pest management (IPM) against Spodoptera armyworms and semiloopers will further protect the canopy cover. 

Maize: A Lush Buffet for Fall Armyworm 

More moisture generally boosts maize biomass, but lush green whorls are candy for the Fall Armyworm (FAW), the invasive caterpillar capable of wiping out 20–50 % of the yield if unchecked. FAW thrives when a warm, dry interlude follows rain. Karnataka’s early-planted maize and Bihar’s post-flood re-sowings require special surveillance. Seed treatment, pheromone lures, and timely sprays of Emamectin or biopesticides form the first line of defense. 

Likely Agri Distress Hotspots 

District (State)	Primary Crop	Why at Risk in 2025?
Yavatmal, Maharashtra	Cotton	Rain variability + pink bollworm history
Sehore & Betul, Madhya Pradesh	Soybean	Past waterlogging losses: high rain forecast
Mansa, Punjab	Cotton	Recurrent pink bollworm & whitefly attacks
Karimnagar, Telangana	Maize	Frequent FAW outbreaks in wet-dry cycles

Providing assistance in these districts, such as farming advice, loan relief, and crop insurance, can help farmers before the situation worsens. 

Action Points for Agri Input Companies

Timing is everything, and sowing has already begun. A two-week logistics lag equals missed sales. Companies should pre-position drought-tolerant seed and micronutrient kits in Punjab and Haryana. They should stock bio-insecticides and pheromone traps in Yavatmal, Mansa, and Karimnagar. Businesses should also ramp up fungicide and drainage advisory teams across MP’s soybean belt and utilize digital advisories (WhatsApp, IVR) to disseminate IPM tips precisely when RMSI Cropalytics risk maps turn red. 

How RMSI Cropalytics Turns Forecasts into Field-Level Gains 

RMSI Cropalytics layers satellite imagery, high-resolution weather feeds, and AI crop models to deliver game-changing services: 

• Pest and Disease Forecast: This is a 15-day, district-level risk map covering 21 crops and over 150 pests and diseases. A High FAW alert in Karimnagar prompts farmers to spray before larvae invade cobs. 
• Crop Outlook and Yield Forecast: Rolling estimates of acreage, yield, and production. If mid-season models indicate a looming paddy shortfall in eastern UP, millers can diversify their sourcing, and insurers can brace for potential claims. 
• Intra-Seasonal Monitoring Dashboard: Near real-time stress indices, soil moisture, and vegetation health that flag micro pockets of flood or drought for rapid extension response. 

These tools transform what-if scenarios into actionable, geotagged advisories for everyone in the value chain, including farmers, agri-retailers, processors, and policymakers. 

Conclusion: From Insights to Impact

Ultimately, the actual value of early insights is realized only when they lead to on-ground impact. With the monsoon underway, now is the time to act on the intelligence at hand. Every stakeholder in the agriculture value chain has a role:

• Farmers can utilize localized weather alerts and pest forecasts (available through mobile apps or extension services) to optimize their sowing, weeding, and spraying schedules for maximum effectiveness.
• Agri-input companies can align their go-to-market strategy with forecasted hotspots – for example, ensuring drought-tolerant seed varieties or extra fertilizers are stocked in regions facing rainfall deficits, or sending agronomists to villages expecting pest trouble.
• Commodity buyers and food processors can adjust their procurement plans – moving quickly to buy from areas likely to have surplus, and securing alternative supplies for areas heading towards a shortfall. Fast-moving consumer goods firms dealing in food grains may decide to forward-book stocks if a production dip is anticipated, thereby preventing price shocks later.
• Government agencies and insurers can target their measures more efficiently. Disaster management teams can pre-position resources in flood-prone districts identified by models. Crop insurers can streamline claim processing in areas projected to have damage, using satellite data as proof to expedite payouts. Even policy decisions like export/import of certain commodities can be better timed with a credible crop outlook.

The larger vision is to stay ahead of the curve. By the time a drought or pest attack becomes visibly severe, much damage is already done; however, if one had known of the risk a month earlier, many mitigating steps could have been taken to soften the blow. For instance, consider how agrarian distress in regions like Yavatmal, Maharashtra – often manifested in farmer debt and even suicides – stems from a cascade of problems: a failed rain, a lost crop, a pest attack, and mounting costs.

Early warning systems can help break this cascade by prompting early support. If we can flag a likely crop failure in such a vulnerable district by mid-season. The government and NGOs can intensify farmer support (including financial aid, counseling, and input subsidies) before the distress leads to extreme outcomes. It aligns with the goal of initiatives aiming to eliminate farmer deaths due to agrarian distress by removing the element of surprise and helplessness through timely information and response.

In conclusion, Kharif 2025 holds immense promise, but it will also test our agility in managing its caprices. The coming weeks will see Indian fields transform with the greening of rice paddies, the flowering of cotton, and the sprouting of pulses and coarse grains. There is an undeniable excitement and optimism at the start of every Kharif. By leveraging advanced insights and acting on predictions, we can channel that optimism into concrete outcomes – bumper harvests, stable prices, and prosperous farmers.

The fusion of meteorology, agronomy, and technology is empowering us to navigate the monsoon’s moods like never before. With data on our side, we can make the monsoon season not a wild card, but a well-charted journey. Here’s to a season where informed preparation meets timely rains – reaping the rewards of both nature’s bounty and human ingenuity.